Finance Bill

It is a privilege to be speaking in a Second Reading so soon after being introduced in this House. I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Spicer, and the noble Baroness, Lady Browning, on their excellent maiden speeches. They were colleagues in the Commons, and I look forward to healthy exchanges in this Chamber. The noble Lord, Lord Stern of Brentford, was an excellent and regular witness before the Treasury Committee and a fine ambassador for our country. That came home to me very clearly during the visits I made to Africa where the impact of his climate change report had great ramifications. The noble Lord should be proud of his role in the Treasury and as climate change ambassador as a result of that. He mentioned the Office of Budget Responsibility and the need for transparency, clarity and independence. I offer noble Lords the example of United Kingdom Financial Investments, which came before the Treasury Committee and had a disaster on the first day. It was lodged in the Treasury building, and you could not put a piece of paper between it and the Treasury. The relationship between the OBR and the Treasury seems very similar. My advice to the Government is to get it out of the Treasury very quickly so that it can be independent and have that transparency and clarity of message that has, to date, been missing. It is important that we get that. I wish this Government well for the sake of the country and for the sake of individuals. We are most definitely living in uncertain times. Last week, Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, in his comments to Congress, said that it is an unusually uncertain environment. Last week, comments were made by Spencer Dale, the chief economist of the Bank of England, and a debate took place in the pages of the Financial Times, with comments from Jeffrey Sachs, Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf, who, incidentally, is on the Government’s independent Banking Commission. When Sam Brittan, a favourite journalist of mine, wrote about this Budget, he asked: ““Are these hardships necessary?””. He pointed out that the real argument should be about whether we need this unparalleled fiscal austerity. Mohamed El-Erian, in his column in the Financial Times, made very clear the global nature of this problem, which we have not spoken about enough. He said: "““The world is facing deep structural challenges””," yet we are witnessing, "““fruitless discussions … and a troubling lack of global””," financial ““harmonisation””. The utterances that came out at the G20 in Toronto fill that description aptly. Unless we get on top of this, and look at global imbalances and develop policies for the structural change, we will find ourselves in real problems. Against that background, what is plan B for this Government? We are living in uncertain times. Therefore, there is no certainty about the proposals being put forward. I followed the deliberations of the Treasury Select Committee in its June 2010 Budget, which was released a few weeks ago. When the Chancellor of the Exchequer was asked about plan B, he said: "““The plan is to have confidence in the British economy and its ability to pay its way in the world””." That is the sum total of the explanation for plan B, but I would suggest that that is insufficient. The political nature of the debate has made it harder to discuss plan B, but it must be discussed. The noble Lord, Lord Stern, made reference to that in his speech. There is insufficient assurance in these deeply worrying times. Against that we have had a Budget which has accelerated the fiscal position very tightly. There will be £40 billion of spending cuts and tax decisions, made up of £8 billion in tax and £32 billion in spending cuts by 2014-15, of which £11 billion will be specific measures on welfare. You cannot tell me the implications for poorer people in our society when we have that £11 billion coming directly out of the welfare budget, with suggestions that more is to come. The impact of that will be a massive discretionary tax on £13 billion extra of spending. The Government have 77 per cent of its spending and 23 per cent of its tax rises for their Budget. Martin Wolf, in the Financial Times, said that the adverse impact on the poorest 10 per cent will be harsher than on the most rich groups in 2012-13 and that it will get worse thereafter. There is a huge gamble at the core of this Budget. Can the Government explain this massive assault and spending cuts adequately to the satisfaction of ordinary people? Can they manage their public relations in this regard? Are these policies being fair on their impact on society? What will they do for long-term unemployment? The ONS June figures show that those who have been unemployed for more than 12 months have increased by 85,000 over the first quarter of this year. Standing at 772,000 that is the highest figure since the first quarter of 1997. Let us not forget youth unemployment, which, for 18 to 24 year-olds, stands at an unprecedented 17.3 per cent. Since the start of the recession, youth unemployment has risen 5.1 per cent. I remember well as a school teacher meeting former pupils 10 years after they had left school and being introduced to their spouses and children. When I asked them whether they had a job they said that they did not. They were the lost generation of the 70s and 80s. Do we want to go back to a lost generation or do something about youth unemployment now, so that when we come out of this recession we will be in a fit and proper position in terms of skills in the economy? That is one issue. The second issue in the gamble concerns the impact of the fiscal tightening on GDP. The Office of Budget Responsibility has predicted growth in 2010 of 1.2 per cent; in 2011 of 2.3 per cent; and in 2012 of 2.8 per cent. It will need a substantial contribution from business investment and exports in 2012 to achieve that. Indeed, contributions from business investment in that year will have to be 1 per cent and from exports 0.9 per cent if we are to achieve our growth target. That is a big challenge. In order to meet that challenge, the Government will be dependent upon domestic private spending being maintained and spending on UK exports being little affected by the fiscal squeeze which they are presently urging countries around the world to adopt. Something does not add up in that situation. We should remember that the Government’s plans are predicated on a private sector revival, with 2 million new jobs being created over the next five or six years. I have yet to meet an experienced economist who will tell me that that is a feasible outcome. This is a fast adjustment early in the life of the coalition Government and it raises the question of what effect these measures will have on individuals. That brings me neatly to the Liberals. I held a landmark birthday party at my home on Saturday for one of my offspring. The cake with the candles was brought in and I thought of the coalition Government. Why should I think of the coalition Government when I should have been enjoying myself? It was because I saw the candles as the Liberals and the cake as the Conservatives, the Tories. The candles gave a little glow and a little hope but, as you and I know, they were cruelly blown out by my three year-old granddaughter. We were then left with the Tory cake. The question is whether it is an edible cake; is it succulent? Are we going to ask for second helpings or will it be inedible? I think it will be the latter. That is the issue. It will be hard to digest for many people. Are the cuts on the cake illiberal? Are they too deep for an economy in the early stages of recovery when some of our trading partners are still very weak? Will the tax changes provide enough private sector investment and job creation after the state withdraws quickly? Will it be fair for all sectors? Is there a coherent ideology? If there is no ideology from the Government then we will have little shape and direction to where we are going. The noise of the cuts will be drowned out by everything else. However, this is what the Government believe in and demonstrates their aspirations for society, but where is the Liberal influence? Where is the Liberal influence on the acceleration in the fiscal tightening area? Where is the Liberal influence on child poverty? In their manifesto the Liberals agreed with the eradication of child poverty by 2020.