Mental Health Bill [Lords]

The Minister shakes her head, but let us be clear: the evidence does not support anything like that proposition. The ability of clinicians to identify risk is very limited. The Mental Health Alliance estimates that up to 2,000 people with schizophrenia would have to be detained in order to prevent one homicide. The ““Avoidable Deaths”” inquiry illustrates that point; in only 1 per cent. of cases was the estimate of immediate risk of violence high at the last contact with the patient before they were responsible for a homicide. In nearly half of cases, there was thought to be no immediate risk of violence. There are similar figures for suicide risk: only 2 per cent. of patients were thought to be at high immediate risk. Let us not get carried away with the thought that there is certainty, and that clinicians know what will happen in the case of any particular patient; they have no such certainty.